BBCIt's only six weeks since a smiling Sir Keir Starmer told us: "I'll be sitting in this seat by 2027" in his interview to mark the start of the year. The bald truth now? It is hard to find anyone in Labour who convincingly agrees.The prime minister is not responsible for Peter Mandelson's behaviour. But it was his decision to take a chance on him. Being furious now doesn't erase the initial choice, and each seedy email makes it seem a bigger and bigger mistake. Yes, MPs are shocked and angry with Peter Mandelson. But they are also angry with the prime minister.The real problem for Keir Starmer is that the fury this week is both a proxy, and a prompt, for stoking months of simmering unhappiness about the government. And it's spread far beyond the chorus of usual critics, making the PM's vow to be in the chair this time next year seem like a lifetime ago. Talking to MPs, ministers and party backers, it's just getting more and more common to hear the weary conclusion that Starmer will later, or sooner perhaps, have to go.One influential figure who has backed him told me that "up until this point I would not have pushed for it, but I don't think there is any choice now – I can't see how his authority survives this". The mess has left one usually loyal minister to conclude: "I don't think anyone thinks he will actually still be PM in 2027."PA WireThere are still voices in government who reckon they can keep their heads down and stick it out."If he doesn't, then we are stuck in the same chaos… the UK becomes like Man U, we can't keep hold of a manager," a minister warns. But another senior figure says "more than ever people feel now he is going to have to go". A dangerous consensus has emerged for Keir Starmer that he is on the way out, an impression that is hard to remove.Inside government, the level of frustration over what's happened in the past few days is acute, again. That's not just because of Peter Mandelson's behaviour, which has been met with a genuine sense of betrayal and disbelief by his former colleagues. But because what happened follows a pattern that is all too familiar in Starmer's government.As a government source describes it, "the perennial problem is getting to the right position far too slowly. Then, you get absolutely no credit, because it looks like you have been forced there."AFP via Getty ImagesStarmer says documents will show Mandelson lied to him about the extent of his friendship with EpsteinThe prime minister obviously believes now that it was wrong to hire Mandelson. There were plenty of people inside the Labour Party who always thought it was a mistake. But he only sacked him in September, when information emerged gradually and political pressure made it supremely uncomfortable. The government is now vowing to publish communications between Mandelson and his colleagues. But it was only pushed into doing so by the opposition, and the prospect of being abandoned by its own MPs, who made it clear that they were never going to vote to block such publication. That embarrassment took up most of Wednesday, even though some Labour ministers had already suggested the idea of publishing the documents on Tuesday night, including getting the Intelligence Committee to handle the process.Starmer's government allies hope and believe the documents will show that Mandelson lied and the PM did nothing wrong. But even if the documents, possibly as many as 100,000 show that, a separate government source says this is yet another example of trying to right a wrong, far too slowly."It will be Starmerism in a nutshell – an extraordinarily painful route to complete exoneration," they said. Whether it's this week's fiasco, or the decision on winter fuel allowance, or lifting the cap on bigger families getting some benefits, there's deep frustration in government more broadly that so much of what it has spent time doing is reversing its own positions. The polls suggest voters don't give much credit to politicians for undoing what many of their own MPs and members would consider mistakes they've made themselves. "Vote for me, I'll get it right in the end" is not a winning formula.Starmer's position is protected right now by the fact that none of his possible contenders seem to be displaying an immediate hunger for the job. One minister told me everything's "weirdly stuck, in limbo".PA WireWes Streeting, who was close with Mandelson, has long harboured ambitions to be PMWes Streeting, the health secretary, has made little secret of his ambition for the job but he's held back not just because of his own friendship with Mandelson, which makes this an awkward moment for him, even though his fury at the former Labour peer is plain.But the political truth is the first challenger rarely becomes the champion. Frankly, if Streeting had wanted to go first, he'd probably have made a move already. The other obvious candidate, who played a major role in pushing the government on publication of its communications with Mandelson, is the former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner. But the tangled investigation into her tax affairs over buying a £800,000 property on the Sussex coast has not yet come to an end. Until that's over, it's not easy for her to make a move. And Andy Burnham? Well, remember the PM's allies blocked the chance for him to come back as an MP two weeks ago.Unless an unexpected candidate decides to take the plunge, and goodness knows what could happen these days, a change at the top doesn't seem likely to be prompted by the wannabe contenders. That is a comfort for Starmer's allies. But keeping your job because there's no automatic, tasty replacement is a position of safety built on others' weakness, not your own strength.PA MediaAngela Rayner resigned as deputy PM and housing secretary after failing to pay enough tax on her £800,000 flat in HoveAside from the swirl around Starmer's leadership, many MPs and members of the public are just thoroughly sickened by the revelations. Epstein's victims are the ones who hurt the most. Mandelson's seeming closeness to Epstein has appalled Labour politicians of all generations – those for whom he's been an ally since the 1980s, or younger MPs who have benefited from his patronage. There is also an obvious sense of vindication from others, who objected to his influence for years, as one minister told me yesterday – "I've always hated him and he's always hated me".MPs hope it might prompt a change in how politics is done, questioning a "culture that has an acceptance of what power does to people". But while the revelations continue, there is deep unease. "It's like the beginning of the expenses scandal, or the financial crash – no one knows where it will end, or who it might take down next," says a cabinet minister. US DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICEMandelson once called Epstein his "best pal" but has since said he regrets "ever having known Epstein"And it's exacerbated the level of doom in Labour's ranks about the prospects for Keir Starmer, stuck in limbo, as one MP told me, "we're just beside ourselves that we can't get anything done or sorted because of it all – everything is being held up by people wondering if they're going to have to run a leadership contest".You can hear that frustration in ministers' voices – on Tuesday, the government had voted to get rid of the limit on bigger families getting some benefits – it took months to persuade No 10 to make that expensive move which cheered the backbenches. The following day any sign of that feeling of accomplishment vanished.The risk for the country, which elected Labour less than two years ago with an enormous majority, is that the PM's predicament means the governing party is distracted.Unable to go back and start again, unable to go forward boldly, because the position of its leader is in such peril. "The government just can't govern with direction – that's a massive issue, and something is going to have to give," one senior official told me.Politics in the 2020s change fast, and it is daft to try to predict what could happen next. It is, of course, still possible that something will turn up. That the prime minister can turn things around, as one of his exasperated cabinet allies said, "people just really want us to fix it". But the Mandelson mess makes mending what's been done that much harder.Back in January, Starmer vowed to be in the chair in 2027. He also said he'd be judged at the General Election in 2029. But as the shock waves from this latest scandal hit, the truth is that so many people in his party have reached a judgement already – that he may not be the man to get them that far.More from InDepthWhy 2026 is Keir Starmer's make or break yearStarmer has kept Trump on side – but is it coming back to bite him?Starmer tells me he'll survive – but can he keep this new year's resolution?BBC InDepth is the home on the website and app for the best analysis, with fresh perspectives that challenge assumptions and deep reporting on the biggest issues of the day. Emma Barnett and John Simpson bring their pick of the most thought-provoking deep reads and analysis, every Saturday. Sign up for the newsletter hereAngela RaynerKeir StarmerJeffrey EpsteinWes StreetingLabour Party
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