The US economy needs the fragile ceasefire President Donald Trump brokered in the Middle East to hold.

If the pause in fighting between Israel and Iran fails and major hostilities resume, oil prices would likely spike again. And surging gasoline prices are the last thing the US economy needs right now.

Inflation is already expected to heat up this summer because of Trump’s massive tariffs on imports. An oil shock would make matters worse — perhaps much worse.

“It would be a bit of a double-whammy. First there’s the stagflationary shock from tariffs. And then a potential oil shock,” Alan Blinder, economics professor at Princeton University and a former top Federal Reserve official, told CNN in a phone interview.

In many ways, Trump’s trade war gives him less margin for error in the Middle East. He can’t afford another world event that causes inflation to rear its ugly head again and further delays rate cuts from the Fed.